東方-時事云評【第20201127-245期】
12月3日
區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定(RCEP)的簽署
意味著日本在經(jīng)濟上已經(jīng)投降了中國
盡管安倍還沒有再次成為日本首相（第三次）
但日本在最后一次戰(zhàn)略投機的道路上又邁進了一步
原因不是別的,因為日本（經(jīng)濟）要活下去
目前歐美疫情已經(jīng)失控
日本的疫情反反復(fù)復(fù),根本無法徹底控制
這種情況下日本經(jīng)濟要維持下去就離不開中國
特別是對日本經(jīng)濟極其重要的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)
占據(jù)了日本GDP的45%左右
在世界經(jīng)濟持續(xù)惡化的情況下
未來歐美很可能在汽車行業(yè)采取保護主義
而日本的汽車業(yè)將會是他們首要的打壓對象
屆時日本汽車業(yè)要活下去,唯一的生路就在中國
從這個角度看,日本簽署RECP或是不得已為之
畢竟目前執(zhí)政的日本極右政府發(fā)
自內(nèi)心是不希望看到一個強大的中國
但所謂形勢比人強
即便日本在安全層面上表現(xiàn)出進一步靠向西方
但在經(jīng)濟上求生于中國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)定格
令西方難堪的是
不僅日本,還有韓國、澳大利亞和新西蘭都簽署了RECP
這四個國家恰恰都與美國有軍事協(xié)議
他們共同構(gòu)成了美國西太安全框架的四個支點
RECP簽署后該區(qū)域?qū)⒊蔀槭澜缱畲蟮淖再Q(mào)區(qū)
超過了歐盟和北美自貿(mào)區(qū)
人口最多、經(jīng)濟體量最大
且是目前世界上最具經(jīng)濟活力的自貿(mào)區(qū)
各成員國能充分享受低關(guān)稅甚至零關(guān)稅帶來的好處
只要是有特色的產(chǎn)業(yè),就可以在RECP內(nèi)享受最大的便利
這對澳大利亞和新西蘭都有著不可抗拒的吸引力
當(dāng)美國的四個西太盟國都加入了中國主導(dǎo)的RECP后
意味著西太安全框架已被中國“釜底抽薪”
成為一個純粹的政治與安全框架
換言之,維系美國（西方）這部車、也就是西太安全框架四個腳（四國）
而兩大錨點（日、韓）的“錢包包”和“米袋子”
都被剮蹭至另一部車、也就是另個框架也就是RCEP的車體上
所以,RECP的簽署對西方有其極其現(xiàn)實的沖擊力
日本原來曾試圖組建CPTPP
但由于缺少有影響力的世界大國參與
CPTPP很難成功
首先美國不同意
因為,有美國的,就是TPP
沒有美國的,才叫CPTPP
如果日本拉入中國入CPTPP,那么問題就來了
CPTPP涵蓋了部分美洲國家
這等同于挖美國的“墻角”
日本就成了吃里扒外的“叛徒”
所以日本不敢把中國拉進來
如今RECP在中國的主導(dǎo)下達成
某種程度上可以說是水到渠成
因為只有中國徹底控制了疫情
掌握著包括疫苗在內(nèi)的疫情防控和防治的全套解決方案
更關(guān)鍵的是,整個世界又只有中國的經(jīng)濟恢復(fù)了元氣
因此他們?yōu)榱嘶钕氯ゾ捅仨氁尤?
需要指出的是
目前加入RECP的國家中
以后一定會出現(xiàn)反復(fù)
但這不妨礙中國的全球戰(zhàn)略
即便是日本、韓國、澳大利亞和新西蘭全部出現(xiàn)反復(fù)也無妨
中國先立足于“10+1模式”夯實RECP框架
東盟已經(jīng)成為中國的第一大貿(mào)易伙伴
且對于東盟其中的絕大多數(shù)國家而言
中國也是他們的第一大貿(mào)易伙伴
因為東盟經(jīng)濟對中國的依賴度很高
東盟國家很清楚,中國是區(qū)域內(nèi)國家
只有中國把該區(qū)域的政治穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展當(dāng)做自己的事對待
哪怕象越南這樣有小心思的國家
他們也相信中國在真心謀求區(qū)域穩(wěn)定共同發(fā)展
所以東盟對RECP非常重視
未來隨著疫情更加嚴(yán)重
歐美很可能重拾貿(mào)易保護主義
屆時“RCEP的縮身版本”,也就是“10+1模式”的生命力將更加頑強
所以中國準(zhǔn)備好了在“10+5”的基礎(chǔ)上做減法
也準(zhǔn)備好了在“10+1”的模式上做加法
更準(zhǔn)備好在最低限度經(jīng)濟內(nèi)循環(huán)的層面上做升級
至于具體過程如何演化就交給時間說話
如果進一步展開就是
退一萬步講,中國還有國內(nèi)的最低內(nèi)循環(huán)
足夠保證中國度過難關(guān)
中國從國內(nèi)最低內(nèi)循環(huán)開始
首先“掛上”朝鮮、更或者柬埔寨,實現(xiàn)東北亞經(jīng)濟一體化的冷啟動
以此為一個“1+1=1”及“1+1=1”
再逐步擴展到“1+10”、或“10+5”,直至“10+N”
這就是中國最低內(nèi)循環(huán)的升級過程
需要強調(diào)的是
RECP的簽署僅僅標(biāo)志著中國取得了階段性勝利
未來還會有反復(fù)
日本雖然經(jīng)濟上投降了中國;但政治上心有不甘
所以日本、韓國等極力主張RECP為印度留下了“快速通道”的后門
未來只要印度愿意,隨時可以作為締約國加入進來
日本知道靠自己的力量很難抗衡中國
即使加上韓國、澳大利亞和新西蘭;力量也顯單薄
日本拉入印度就是試圖盡力平衡中國在BCEP中的影響力
而印度目前不加入主要是出于保護本國產(chǎn)業(yè)的考慮
印度擔(dān)心低關(guān)稅下外部競爭會把印度的經(jīng)濟摧垮
其次印度也不愿承認(rèn)中國在經(jīng)濟上的主導(dǎo)地位
但對中國而言印度加不加入無所謂
在疫情的持續(xù)沖擊下
世界經(jīng)濟的寒冬即將到來
正是這個現(xiàn)實讓包括東盟在內(nèi)的國家
特別是日本、韓國、澳大利亞和新西蘭
他們頂著美國的壓力加入中國主導(dǎo)的RECP
就是因為不想在“即將到來的全球經(jīng)濟寒冬”中被“首批凍死”
Signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP)
Means that Japan has surrendered to China economically
Although Abe has not yet become the prime minister of Japan (the third time)
But Japan has taken another step forward on the path of the last strategic speculation
The reason is nothing else, because Japan (the economy) wants to survive
The current epidemic in Europe and America is out of control
The epidemic in Japan is repeated and it is impossible to completely control it
Under this circumstance, the Japanese economy cannot be maintained without China.
Especially the automobile industry which is extremely important to the Japanese economy
Occupies about 45% of Japan’s GDP
As the world economy continues to deteriorate
In the future, Europe and the United States are likely to adopt protectionism in the auto industry
And Japan’s auto industry will be their primary target of suppression
By then, the Japanese auto industry will survive, and the only way to survive is in China
From this perspective, Japan's signing of RCEP may be a last resort
After all, the current ruling Japanese ultra-right government issued
I don’t want to see a strong China from the bottom of my heart
But the so-called situation is better than people
Even if Japan appears to lean further towards the West on the security level
But surviving economically in China’s economy has been fixed
What embarrass the West is
Not only Japan, but also South Korea, Australia and New Zealand have signed RCEP
These four countries happen to have military agreements with the United States
Together they constitute the four fulcrums of the US West Pacific Security Framework
After the signing of RECP, the region will become the world's largest free trade zone
Surpassed the EU and North American Free Trade Area
Largest population and largest economy
It is currently the most economically dynamic free trade zone in the world
Member states can fully enjoy the benefits of low or even zero tariffs
As long as it is a distinctive industry, you can enjoy the greatest convenience in RCEP
This is irresistible to Australia and New Zealand
When the four Western Pacific allies of the United States joined the China-led RECP
It means that the West Pacific Security Framework has been "raised from the bottom" by China
Become a purely political and security framework
In other words, to maintain the US (Western) car, that is, the four feet of the Western Pacific Security Framework (four countries)
And the "wallet bag" and "rice bag" of the two anchor points (Japan and South Korea)
Are all scratched to another car, which is another frame, which is the body of RCEP
Therefore, the signing of RECP has an extremely realistic impact on the West.
Japan originally tried to form CPTPP
But due to the lack of influential world powers
CPTPP is difficult to succeed
First of all, the United States does not agree
Because, there is the United States, it is TPP
Without the United States, it is called CPTPP
If Japan pulls China into the CPTPP, then the problem will come
CPTPP covers some American countries
This is equivalent to digging the "corner" of the United States
Japan has become a "traitor"
So Japan dare not bring China in
Now RECP is reached under the leadership of China
It can be said to be a matter of course
Because only China has completely controlled the epidemic
Master a complete set of solutions for epidemic prevention and control including vaccines
More importantly, in the entire world, only China's economy has recovered.
So they have to join in order to survive
What needs to be pointed out is
Countries currently participating in RCEP
There will be repetitions in the future
But this does not hinder China’s global strategy
Even Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand all have repetitions.
China first based on the "10+1 model" to consolidate the RECP framework
ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner
And for the vast majority of ASEAN countries
China is also their number one trading partner
Because the ASEAN economy is highly dependent on China
ASEAN countries are very clear that China is a country in the region
Only China treats the political stability and economic development of the region as its own business
Even in a cautious country like Vietnam
They also believe that China is sincerely seeking regional stability and common development
So ASEAN attaches great importance to RCEP
As the epidemic becomes more serious in the future
Europe and the United States are likely to regain trade protectionism
By then, the vitality of "RCEP's reduced version", that is, the "10+1 mode" will be more tenacious
So China is ready to do subtraction on the basis of "10+5"
Also ready to add on the "10+1" mode
More ready to upgrade at the level of minimal economic internal circulation
As for how the specific process evolves, time will speak
If it expands further
Taking 10,000 steps back, China still has the lowest internal circulation in China
Enough to ensure that China survives the storm
China starts with the lowest domestic internal loop
First, "hang up" North Korea, or even Cambodia, to realize the cold start of economic integration in Northeast Asia
Take this as a "1+1=1" and "1+1=1"
Then gradually expand to "1+10", or "10+5", until "10+N"
This is the upgrade process of China's lowest internal cycle
What needs to be emphasized is
The signing of RCEP only marks China's phased victory
There will be repeats in the future
Although Japan has surrendered to China economically, it is politically unwilling
Therefore, Japan, South Korea and others strongly advocate that RCEP leaves a "fast track" backdoor for India.
In the future, as long as India is willing, it can join as a signatory at any time
Japan knows that it is difficult to compete with China on its own
Even with the addition of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand; the power is weak
Japan pulling India in is trying to balance China's influence in RCEP
India’s current non-joining is mainly due to the protection of its own industries.
India is worried that external competition under low tariffs will destroy India’s economy
Secondly, India is unwilling to recognize China's economic dominance
But for China, it doesn’t matter whether India joins or not.
Under the continuous impact of the epidemic
The winter of the world economy is coming
It is this reality that makes countries including ASEAN
Especially Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand
They joined the Chinese-led RCEP under pressure from the United States
It's because they don't want to be "frozen to death in the first batch" in the "coming global economic winter"
(Network translation)
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