東方-時事云評【第20201029-216期】
10月 22 日
人民幣對美元匯率連續(xù) 6 個交易日持續(xù)上漲
在岸人民幣對美元最高升至 6.64
離岸人民幣對美元一度升至 6.63
均創(chuàng)下逾兩年新高
?在東方時事解讀看來
這波人民幣升值的根本原因在于
第一是中國完全控制了疫情
第二是在此基礎(chǔ)之上中國經(jīng)濟得以恢復(fù)增長
最好證明就是十一國慶長假中國6.5億人次出游
按照病毒潛伏期14天計算
22日國家衛(wèi)健委公布數(shù)據(jù)中國沒有出現(xiàn)一例本土新增病例
與之相對應(yīng)不需重復(fù)贅言的則是外國的疫情與經(jīng)濟
默克爾稱不要過分依賴中國經(jīng)濟從側(cè)面說明了對中國經(jīng)濟的依賴
國際貨幣基金組織報告稱“全球唯一正增長的主要經(jīng)濟體是中國”
且由于中國經(jīng)濟體量巨大
在美國大肆印鈔、疫情肆虐、國內(nèi)斗爭激烈化的背景下
在美元總有一天要失去霸權(quán)的預(yù)期下
全世界都有一個基本判斷：風景中國這邊獨好
如橋水基金創(chuàng)始人所言“時間在中國這邊”
因此中國發(fā)行不評級債券都被外資瘋搶
從前不留存人民幣的外貿(mào)企業(yè)也開始儲備人民幣
數(shù)據(jù)顯示
中美10年期1年期國債收益率均維持在240個基點以上
前三季度境外投資者增持境內(nèi)股票和債券增長了47%
當前，日元歐元利率已為負、美國名義上保持0利率
中國正利率與它們形成極大利差也吸引了大量外資流入國內(nèi)
只需存入中國的銀行就可無風險賺取利息且利息還不低
何樂而不為？
雖然匯率對中國企業(yè)出口有一定影響
但當前情況對匯率敏感性顯著降低
因為大部分出口訂單是硬需求
印度數(shù)十萬大軍駐守高原寒地
此前消息說印度已向歐美尋求防寒裝備
但恐怕即便搬空歐美庫存或加足馬力生產(chǎn)線全開
歐美也只無法滿足印度需求
大批量的訂單需求最終或還得通過各種途徑落入中國企業(yè)之手
除歐美轉(zhuǎn)來的訂單外
印度紡織品訂單由于疫情原因印度企業(yè)無法完成就大量流向了中國
中國在這種各種訂單拿到手軟的情況下
商品出口對匯率的敏感性會相對鈍化
因此我們預(yù)期中國外管局目前階段不會實質(zhì)干預(yù)匯率
也就是會暫時放任人民幣升值
若干預(yù)恐怕更多的也只是象征性
更不會象許多媒體與分析所說的“通過降低準備金率和利率去應(yīng)對人民幣升值”
人民幣貨幣政策非常穩(wěn)健，不僅沒有降息的趨勢
深圳樓市對房貸還有所收緊
用降準、降息應(yīng)對人民幣升值的說法并不準確
如果中國有關(guān)部門在這個時間點“果真的實質(zhì)性干預(yù)人民幣匯率”
那么，我們的看法將如同2014至2015年“提前啟動股市”時一樣持質(zhì)疑態(tài)度
至少目前一至一個半月的時間里
即12月中旬之前
我們預(yù)期中國經(jīng)濟對人民幣升值不那么敏感
但兩三個月之后、如果中國已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)為“最低限度內(nèi)循環(huán)”則需要另當別論、需要具體問題具體分析
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補充一些細節(jié)：
據(jù)相關(guān)媒體報道
8月以來，中國家具出口需求暴增
其中北美市場訂單同比增長100%、歐洲地區(qū)也增長70%左右
其次今年以來中國的筆記本、打印機等辦公用品熱銷歐美
首先說明中國經(jīng)濟恢復(fù)后
供應(yīng)鏈通暢、生產(chǎn)成本降低、波動小效率高
其次外國疫情反復(fù)使供應(yīng)鏈斷裂生產(chǎn)停頓
生產(chǎn)成本不斷拉高，逐漸喪失競爭力
最終導(dǎo)致大量訂單涌向中國
由于供不應(yīng)求，廠商一般優(yōu)先接高價訂單
當賣價變高成本降低時
中國的出口廠商不會過于在乎匯率的影響
由于現(xiàn)在美元信用極度不好且美國經(jīng)濟大幅萎縮
經(jīng)貿(mào)國家從美國賺取美元的幾率變小
而在和中國的貿(mào)易當中賺取人民幣的幾率增加
從前不怎么儲備人民幣的外貿(mào)企業(yè)
會減少原來將人民幣再度兌換成美元這一環(huán)節(jié)
而選擇直接將人民幣留在手中以便下次繼續(xù)與中國貿(mào)易往來
因此對人民幣的需求也在不斷增加
總之，人民幣升值的關(guān)鍵因素在于
中國完全控制了疫情以及中國經(jīng)濟恢復(fù)了增長
其它因素也包括中國產(chǎn)品在全球的市場占有率更加擴大
必然導(dǎo)致市場對人民幣的需求量增加
中美利差的加大、歐元日元區(qū)的負利率
吸引全球資金流向國內(nèi)
October 22
The exchange rate of RMB against US dollar continued to rise for 6 consecutive trading days
The onshore RMB rose to 6.64 against the US dollar
Offshore yuan rose to 6.63 against the US dollar
Both hit new highs in more than two years
According to the interpretation of Dongfang Time
The fundamental reason for this wave of RMB appreciation is that
First, China has completely controlled the epidemic
Second, on this basis, China's economy can resume growth
The best proof is that 650 million people travel in China during the National Day holiday
According to the virus incubation period of 14 days
There is no new local case in China, according to the National Health Commission on October 22
Correspondingly, there is no need to repeat the epidemic situation and economy of foreign countries
Merkel said that we should not rely too much on China's economy, which shows the dependence on China's economy
The International Monetary Fund reported that "the only major economy with positive growth in the world is China"
And because of the huge size of China's economy
Under the background of the United States printing money wantonly, the epidemic situation is rampant, and the domestic struggle is intensified
Under the expectation that the US dollar will lose its hegemony one day
The world has a basic judgment: the scenery of China is unique
As the founder of Bridge Water Fund said, "time is on China's side"
As a result, China's issuance of non rated bonds has been scrambled by foreign investors
In the past, foreign trade enterprises that did not retain RMB began to reserve RMB
Data display
The yields of 10-year and 1-year treasury bonds of China and the United States remained above 240 basis points
Foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks and bonds by 47% in the first three quarters
At present, the interest rate of Japanese yen and euro has been negative, and the US maintains zero interest rate in nominal terms
China's positive interest rate has formed a huge interest rate gap with them, which has also attracted a large number of foreign investment into China
Just deposit in the banks of China, you can earn interest without risk and the interest is not low
Why not?
Although the exchange rate has a certain impact on the export of Chinese enterprises
However, the current situation is significantly less sensitive to the exchange rate
Because most export orders are hard demand
Hundreds of thousands of Indian troops stationed in cold Highlands
Previously, it was said that India had sought cold protection equipment from Europe and the United States
But I'm afraid that even if we empty Europe and America's stock or add full horsepower to fully open production lines
Europe and the United States cannot meet India's needs
The demand for large quantities of orders will eventually fall into the hands of Chinese enterprises through various channels
Except for orders transferred from Europe and America
Due to the epidemic situation, India's textile orders went to China in large quantities because of the failure of Indian enterprises to complete
China is in a situation where orders are too many
The sensitivity of commodity export to exchange rate will be relatively passive
Therefore, we do not expect safe to intervene in the exchange rate in real terms at this stage
That is to say, it will temporarily allow the RMB to appreciate
I'm afraid some of them are more symbolic
And it will not "respond to RMB appreciation by reducing reserve ratio and interest rate" as much multimedia and analysis put it
RMB monetary policy is very stable, not only there is no trend of interest rate reduction
Shenzhen real estate market still has some tightening on housing loans
It is not accurate to reduce the reserve rate and interest rate to deal with the appreciation of RMB
If the relevant departments of China "really intervene in the RMB exchange rate substantially" at this point in time
Then, our view will be as skeptical as it was when the stock market was "launched early" in 2014-2015
At least for a month to a half
Before the middle of December
We expect the Chinese economy to be less sensitive to RMB appreciation
However, after two or three months, if China has already turned into a "minimum internal circulation", it needs to be discussed in a different way, and specific problems need to be analyzed
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Add some details:
According to relevant media reports
Since August, China's furniture export demand has soared
Among them, North American market orders increased by 100% year-on-year, and European region also increased by about 70%
Second, since this year, China's notebook, printer and other office supplies are selling well in Europe and the United States
First of all, after China's economic recovery
The supply chain is smooth, the production cost is reduced, the fluctuation is small, and the efficiency is high
Secondly, the supply chain has been broken and production has been suspended due to repeated outbreaks in foreign countries
The cost of production is rising, and the competitiveness is gradually lost
As a result, a large number of orders poured into China
Due to the shortage of supply, manufacturers generally give priority to high price orders
When the selling price is higher and the cost is lower
Chinese exporters will not care too much about the impact of the exchange rate
Due to the extremely bad credit of the US dollar and the sharp contraction of the US economy
Economic and trade countries are less likely to earn dollars from the United States
And the chance of earning RMB in trade with China is increasing
Foreign trade enterprises that used to have little reserve of RMB
It will reduce the process of converting RMB into US dollars again
And choose to keep the RMB directly in hand so as to continue to trade with China next time
As a result, the demand for RMB is also increasing
In short, the key factor of RMB appreciation lies in
China has completely controlled the epidemic and China's economy has resumed growth
Other factors include the increased global market share of Chinese products
It will inevitably lead to an increase in the market demand for RMB
The increase of interest rate spread between China and the United States and the negative interest rate of Euro yen area
Attract global capital flow to China
Statement: If there is any discrepancy in the specific content, first take the "Dongfang Time Global Current Affairs Interpretation · Current Affairs Festival Brief Edition" as the benchmark; secondly, use the " Dongfang Time Universal Current Affairs Interpretation · Current Affairs Random Talk" as a reference.
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