東方-時(shí)事云評(píng)【第20201115-232期】
11月17日
稍早,由于潰瘍性大腸炎復(fù)發(fā),借口無法做出正確政治判斷
安倍決定辭去首相一職
他在下臺(tái)那一瞬間
按下了日本“最后一次戰(zhàn)略投機(jī)”戰(zhàn)略的“暫停鍵”
并意味著日本極右政府決定
在必要時(shí)有效配合美國(guó)有效干擾中國(guó)武力解放臺(tái)灣問題上
要跳上“美國(guó)戰(zhàn)車”
?
11月2日
日本前首相安倍晉三在辭職后首次返回老家山口縣
并連續(xù)三天參加政治活動(dòng)
還公開表示自己的身體狀況“飛速好轉(zhuǎn)”
將在2021年回歸政壇
?
面對(duì)這一戲劇性的一幕我們不僅感嘆
安倍可謂是長(zhǎng)了一副“會(huì)思考、會(huì)選擇的政治大腸”
這一消息的出現(xiàn)
驗(yàn)證了東方時(shí)事解讀此前關(guān)于安倍可能“三進(jìn)宮”的評(píng)估
側(cè)面驗(yàn)證了關(guān)于安倍下臺(tái)那一刻
按下了日本“最后一次戰(zhàn)略投機(jī)”戰(zhàn)略的“暫停鍵”的評(píng)估
?
有趣的是
在美國(guó)大選問題上安倍可謂犯過“歷史錯(cuò)誤”
當(dāng)年他錯(cuò)誤判斷希拉里會(huì)當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)
最終不得不在特朗普上臺(tái)時(shí)就去進(jìn)行“賠禮外交”
值得一提的是
安倍重返政壇似乎并無懸念
只是這次安倍重返政壇與美國(guó)大選關(guān)聯(lián)不大
反而與大選后的美國(guó)國(guó)運(yùn)沒落關(guān)系較大
?
安倍一生最大的政治抱負(fù)
就是修改和平憲法,使日本成為正常國(guó)家
但這一雄心壯志恐怕在美國(guó)那里永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)
如果日本走上靠近中國(guó)的道路,反而有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)
日本成為正常國(guó)家對(duì)中國(guó)沒什么影響
但必須的條件就是日本要真誠(chéng)反省歷史
在歷史問題上正式給出一個(gè)中國(guó)人民可以接受的交代
日本如果真的看到美國(guó)不行了
這個(gè)成為正常國(guó)家的前提條件
對(duì)日本極右而言恐怕并非不可逾越
?
安倍本人是一個(gè)極右政客
從內(nèi)心深處對(duì)中國(guó)的強(qiáng)大感到抵觸
但安倍也是一個(gè)非?，F(xiàn)實(shí)的政客
從安倍兩次變臉把上臺(tái)下臺(tái)當(dāng)兒戲來看
今天的日本之所以不是正常國(guó)家
與日本政客（用常人的觀點(diǎn)衡量）的不正常也有莫大的關(guān)系
不過,日本政客的不正常與日本的不正常之間
是一個(gè)先有雞還是先有蛋的問題
究竟是先有雞還是先有蛋？
朋友們?nèi)缬信d趣可以琢磨一下
?
現(xiàn)今世界上大部分人都在認(rèn)為美國(guó)不行了
十月底蓬佩奧在亞洲進(jìn)行反華路演
試圖拉攏印度尼西亞、斯里蘭卡等國(guó)
印度尼西亞提前表示拒絕選邊站,不想陷入反華運(yùn)動(dòng)
斯里蘭卡總統(tǒng)表示
過去美國(guó)外交官最喜歡與斯里蘭卡談人權(quán)
這次斯里蘭卡則要提醒意美國(guó)注意自己的人權(quán)問題
尷尬之余,蓬佩奧只得說希望將過去的事情翻篇
即便不簽署協(xié)議也不會(huì)傷害兩國(guó)關(guān)系之類的話
美國(guó)落到今天這個(gè)地步
可謂是“落架鳳凰不如雞”
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我們知道
日本首相菅義偉在視察福島第一核電站時(shí)
曾詢問凈化處理后的核污水能否飲用
東京電力工作人員則回應(yīng)稱：“如果稀釋的話就可以喝”
?
核廢水是安倍心里的一個(gè)負(fù)擔(dān),也是日本的一個(gè)負(fù)擔(dān)
安倍下臺(tái)的目的之一
就是想用“跳上美國(guó)戰(zhàn)車”與西方做兩個(gè)極其現(xiàn)實(shí)的利益交換
一是交換到奧運(yùn)會(huì)
二是交換到歐美允許日本排放核廢水的承諾
由于安倍已經(jīng)辭職,即便其傳遞出要重返政壇的信號(hào)
但這個(gè)臟活恐怕還得菅義偉政府來完成
由于西方對(duì)“所有盟友中最擅長(zhǎng)投機(jī)”的日本
始終心存戒心
所以在承諾日本排放核廢水的問題上美國(guó)（西方）并沒有及時(shí)答應(yīng)
再加上在奧運(yùn)會(huì)問題上始終沒有一句準(zhǔn)話
于是乎,日本極右甚至等不及安倍普三的“三進(jìn)宮”
就一氣之下重新回歸“最后一次戰(zhàn)略投機(jī)”狀態(tài)
?
在東方時(shí)事解讀的觀察中
西方允許日本排放核廢水
與日本承諾在中國(guó)武統(tǒng)臺(tái)灣時(shí)配合美國(guó)有效干擾是一對(duì)要價(jià)
如果西方不允許日本排放核廢水
未來日本是否配合美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)解放臺(tái)灣進(jìn)行有效干擾就要打問號(hào)
日本的要價(jià)姿態(tài)通過安倍可能重返政壇的姿態(tài)表達(dá)了出來
如果仍拿不到這個(gè)承諾
安倍真有可能“三進(jìn)宮”,也就是三次出任日本首相
再次按下已經(jīng)處于暫停的“暫停鍵”,以重啟“最后一次戰(zhàn)略投機(jī)”進(jìn)程
這時(shí)的日本就會(huì)從“美國(guó)戰(zhàn)車”上正式跳下
?
菅義偉已經(jīng)提出了“凈化處理后的核污水能否飲用”的問題
隨員“深知朕心”,趕緊回答說“稀釋后可以飲用”
有效的“稀釋”,大概得用整個(gè)太平洋的水去稀釋才行
這句話的意思就等同于美國(guó)允許日本排放核廢水
下屬的馬屁之外、就是刻意的提問了
就看接下來美國(guó)與歐洲答不答應(yīng)了“立刻排放”了
在西方看來
日本答應(yīng)配合美國(guó)實(shí)質(zhì)性干擾解放臺(tái)灣屬于“期貨”
換言之,日本隨時(shí)可能視情況而定、或半路跳車
而日本排放核廢水可是實(shí)打?qū)嵉?ldquo;現(xiàn)貨”
一旦排放就不可能收回
這些核廢水將隨著洋流
最終漂洋過海到達(dá)北美洲的西海岸,甚至更遠(yuǎn)的地方
雙方談不攏問題恐怕就出在這里
?
在安倍擺出要重返政壇、日本極右重啟“最后一次戰(zhàn)略投機(jī)”架勢(shì)時(shí)
菅義偉一邊對(duì)西方開出條件,詢問核廢水是否能飲用
一邊開始讓日本汽車業(yè)向中國(guó)大陸投資
11月2日
日媒介紹稱,中國(guó)正進(jìn)一步加快對(duì)環(huán)境友好型汽車的普及
到2035年,電動(dòng)汽車等新能源汽車或?qū)⒄紦?jù)中國(guó)新車銷售的一半
15年之后;傳統(tǒng)的燃油車有可能在中國(guó)被禁止出售
作為全球最大汽車市場(chǎng)的中國(guó)改變方針
勢(shì)必對(duì)各國(guó)汽車制造商、特別是歐美日的帶來根本性的影響
日資汽車制造商打算在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上大力發(fā)展新能源汽車
在今年秋季舉辦的北京國(guó)際汽車展覽會(huì)上
日產(chǎn)汽車首次在國(guó)外公開了旗下新款電動(dòng)汽車
并表示預(yù)定于2021年開始在中國(guó)銷售
本田汽車也發(fā)布了電動(dòng)概念車,打算批量生產(chǎn)電動(dòng)汽車
?
中國(guó)日前發(fā)布
《新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃(2021－2035年)》提出
到2025年
新能源汽車新車銷售量達(dá)到汽車新車銷售總量的20%左右
到2035年
除工程或商業(yè)用車外純電動(dòng)汽車成為新銷售車輛的主流
由于中國(guó)是世界第一大汽車市場(chǎng)
而且中國(guó)汽車業(yè)到目前為止
和歐美日三大汽車制造集團(tuán)沒有根本性沖突
這份文件的發(fā)布意味著
歐美日三家誰想在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上站穩(wěn)腳跟就必須馬上行動(dòng)起來
否則中國(guó)自己的企業(yè)做起來后;就會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)“彎道超車”
恐怕他們的好日子也就算了到頭了
這就是逼著歐美日三家做出抉擇
誰生誰死就在各自的一念之間
?
一般而言
反企業(yè)（行業(yè)）壟斷至少要達(dá)到三家的規(guī)模
因?yàn)閮杉液苋菀讐艛嗳蚁鄬?duì)不容易壟斷
即便是歐美日三家達(dá)成壟斷
中國(guó)還有自己的企業(yè)在做新能源汽車
?
新能源汽車有兩條路線
一條是電能源汽車
中國(guó)在車載電池能量密度方面已經(jīng)達(dá)到世界領(lǐng)先水平
一條是燃料汽車
這條路線日本技術(shù)領(lǐng)先
中國(guó)現(xiàn)在具備發(fā)展新能源汽車的全部要素
包括領(lǐng)先的車載電池技術(shù)、華為的汽車操作系統(tǒng)
領(lǐng)先的5G技術(shù)和必不可少的北斗衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航技術(shù)
中國(guó)的企業(yè)有的是市場(chǎng)
中國(guó)的企業(yè)要的只是時(shí)間
日本的企業(yè)知道,這是他的最后一次機(jī)會(huì)
所以反應(yīng)非常積極
匆忙宣布要來中國(guó)投資搞新能源汽車
要在北京國(guó)際汽車展覽會(huì)上首次公開新款電動(dòng)汽車
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在歐美日三大汽車集團(tuán)中
日本是唯一一個(gè)沒有衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)的
也是市場(chǎng)資源相對(duì)薄弱的一方
而且還有一個(gè)三家共有的弱點(diǎn)：沒有5G
日本汽車現(xiàn)在也只有新能源汽車燃料技術(shù)還值點(diǎn)錢
如果不依靠中國(guó)大陸市場(chǎng)與中國(guó)衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航技術(shù)
日本汽車行業(yè)在歐美的打擊下恐怕前景只能黯淡
這都促使日本汽車業(yè)不得不登陸中國(guó)大陸!而且跑得比誰都快
日本汽車業(yè)登陸中國(guó)大陸
表面上是自己主動(dòng)選擇的
實(shí)際上是被中國(guó)的新能源汽車政策逼出來的
中國(guó)用這一政策牽制日本汽車業(yè)
這也會(huì)促使安倍可能真的“三進(jìn)宮”
最后不得不把“最后一次戰(zhàn)略投機(jī)”進(jìn)行到底
?
11月3日
新華社發(fā)文稱
問題車都已經(jīng)在中國(guó)召回了,特斯拉在海外卻不認(rèn)賬
甩鍋中國(guó)用戶使用習(xí)慣和監(jiān)管部門壓力
這種無理傲慢不能慣
此前,特斯拉因存在安全隱患
在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)召回部分進(jìn)口Model S、Model X電動(dòng)汽車
但卻在給美國(guó)國(guó)家公路交通安全管理局的一封信中
否認(rèn)其車輛懸架存在隱患
并表示出現(xiàn)損壞并非質(zhì)量問題,而是部分中國(guó)車主濫用造成
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傲慢是有代價(jià)的,該敲打就要敲打
新華社說特斯拉的無理傲慢不能慣
表面上是說給特斯拉聽
其實(shí)也是說給其他人特別是搞最后一次戰(zhàn)略投機(jī)的日本聽
中國(guó)在這個(gè)時(shí)候修理特斯拉（美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)）
某種意義上講也是示意日本“你現(xiàn)在還有機(jī)會(huì)”
再過一段時(shí)間
中國(guó)自己的新能源車企出來了,美國(guó)的在華企業(yè)做大了
日本汽車業(yè)恐怕是連一點(diǎn)機(jī)會(huì)都沒有了
從日產(chǎn)豐田的積極表現(xiàn)上看
日本方面對(duì)這個(gè)信號(hào)不僅“照單全收”,而且是心領(lǐng)神會(huì)
?
從10月27日開始
特斯拉公司將向歐洲出口中國(guó)制造的電動(dòng)汽車
而不是從美國(guó)向歐洲出口
意味著產(chǎn)地是中國(guó)的特斯拉汽車有著明顯的成本優(yōu)勢(shì)
中國(guó)有自己的新能源車企
特斯拉到中國(guó)來是因?yàn)橛绣X賺、成本低
如果不服氣可以離開中國(guó)
但它離不開中國(guó)、也不愿意離開中國(guó)
?
無論是中國(guó)逼日本汽車業(yè)做出選擇
還是中國(guó)在這時(shí)候修理特斯拉
都與另一件事異曲同工
那就是中國(guó)至今都沒有從根本上去處理臺(tái)灣的經(jīng)濟(jì)
就是要用臺(tái)灣經(jīng)濟(jì)的相關(guān)行業(yè)去牽制、擠壓日韓經(jīng)濟(jì)
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中國(guó)發(fā)布的新能源或者環(huán)境友好型汽車發(fā)展規(guī)劃
是有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的
它首先是一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略政策
而不僅僅是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)文件或者一個(gè)行業(yè)政策
這也意味著中國(guó)判斷整個(gè)形勢(shì)距離全面攤牌更加近了
Earlier, due to the recurrence of ulcerative colitis, the excuse was unable to make correct political judgments
Abe decided to resign as prime minister
The moment he stepped down
Pressed the "pause button" of Japan's "last strategic speculation" strategy
And means that the Japanese ultra-right government decided
Effectively cooperate with the United States when necessary to effectively interfere with China’s armed liberation of Taiwan
To jump on the "American tank"
November 2
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe returns to his hometown of Yamaguchi for the first time after resignation
And participated in political activities for three consecutive days
Also publicly stated that his physical condition is "rapidly improving"
Will return to politics in 2021
Facing this dramatic scene, we not only sigh
Abe can be described as having a "political intestine who can think and choose"
The appearance of the news
Verifies the previous assessment of Abe’s possible "Three Entering Palace"
The side verified the moment Abe stepped down
Pressed the "pause button" evaluation of Japan's "last strategic speculation" strategy
Interestingly
Abe can be said to have committed a "historical mistake" on the US election
He misjudged that Hillary Clinton would be elected president of the United States.
In the end, he had to engage in "compensation diplomacy" when Trump came to power
It is worth mentioning that
Abe's return to politics seems to have no suspense
It’s just that Abe’s return to politics has little to do with the U.S. election.
On the contrary, it has more to do with the decline of U.S. national luck after the election.
?Abe's greatest political ambition in life
It is to amend the peace constitution to make Japan a normal country
But this ambition may never be realized in the United States
If Japan embarks on a path closer to China, it will be possible instead
Japan's becoming a normal country has no effect on China
But the necessary condition is that Japan must sincerely reflect on history
Give an official account acceptable to the Chinese people on historical issues
If Japan really sees the United States is not good any more,
This is a prerequisite for a normal country
It may not be insurmountable for Japan’s extreme right
Abe himself is a far-right politician
He feels resistant to China's power from the bottom of his heart
But Abe is also a very realistic politician
Judging from the fact that Abe changed his face twice and took off “stage” as a trifling matter
The reason why Japan today is not a normal country
It also has a lot to do with the abnormalities of Japanese politicians (measured by ordinary people’s views)
However, between the abnormalities of Japanese politicians and the abnormalities of Japan
Is it a question of the chicken or the egg?
Did the chicken or the egg come first?
If you are interested, you can think about it
Most people in the world nowadays think that the United States is no longer good
Pompeo conducts anti-China roadshow in Asia at the end of October
Trying to win over countries such as Indonesia and Sri Lanka
Indonesia said in advance that it refused to choose sides and did not want to fall into the anti-China movement
The President of Sri Lanka said
In the past, American diplomats liked to talk to Sri Lanka about human rights
This time Sri Lanka wants to remind the United States to pay attention to its human rights issues
In embarrassment, Pompeo had to say that he hoped to turn over the past.
Even if you don’t sign an agreement, it won’t hurt the relationship between the two countries.
America has fallen to where it is today
It can be described as "a phoenix without hair is ??not as good as a chicken"
We know
When Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga inspected the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant
Asked whether the purified nuclear sewage can be consumed
The Tokyo Electric Power staff responded: "If you dilute it, you can drink it."
Nuclear waste water is a burden in Abe's mind, and it is also a burden in Japan
One of the purposes of Abe's step down
I just want to use "jump on the American tank" to exchange two extremely realistic interests with the West.
One is to switch to the Olympics
The second is to exchange commitments to Europe and the United States to allow Japan to discharge nuclear waste water
Since Abe has resigned, even if he sends a signal to return to politics
But this dirty work may have to be done by the Yoshihide Suga government
The West has always been wary of Japan, which is "the most opportunistic of all its allies."
Therefore, the United States (the West) did not promptly agree to the issue of Japan’s nuclear waste water discharge.
In addition, there is never a word on the Olympics
Ever since, Japan’s extreme right can’t even wait for Shinzo Abe’s "Three Entering Palace"
Just angrily returned to the "last strategic speculation" state
In the observation of Dongfang Time
The West allows Japan to discharge nuclear waste water
It is a pair of asking prices that Japan promises to cooperate with the United States to interfere effectively when China's military unifying Taiwan
If the West does not allow Japan to discharge nuclear wastewater
Whether Japan will cooperate with the United States in effectively interfering with China's liberation of Taiwan in the future will be questioned
Japan’s asking price posture is expressed through the posture that Abe may return to politics
If you still can't get this promise
It's really possible that Abe will enter the palace three times, that is, be the prime minister of Japan three times
Press the pause button again to restart the "last strategic speculation" process
At this time, Japan will officially jump off the "American tank"
Yoshihide Suga has raised the question of whether the purified nuclear sewage can be consumed
The Attaché "knows his heart" and quickly replied, "You can drink after dilution"
Effective "dilution" probably requires dilution with water from the entire Pacific Ocean
The meaning of this sentence is equivalent to the United States allowing Japan to discharge nuclear waste water
In addition to the flattering of subordinates, there are deliberate questions
It depends on whether the U.S. and Europe agree to "emission immediately".
In the west
Japan's promise to cooperate with the United States to substantially interfere with the liberation of Taiwan is a "futures"
In other words, Japan may at any time depending on the situation, or jump halfway.
Japan’s nuclear waste water discharge is a real “spot”
Once discharged, it is impossible to recover
These nuclear waste water will follow the ocean currents
Eventually cross the ocean to reach the west coast of North America, and even farther away
I'm afraid that the two sides can't agree on the problem lies in this
When Abe assumes that he will return to politics and Japan’s extreme right restarts the "last strategic speculation" posture
Yoshihide Suga offered conditions to the West, asking whether the nuclear waste water was drinkable
While starting to let the Japanese auto industry invest in mainland China
November 2
Japanese media said that China is further accelerating the popularization of environmentally friendly cars
By 2035, new energy vehicles such as electric vehicles may account for half of China's new car sales
15 years later; traditional fuel vehicles may be banned for sale in China
China as the world's largest auto market changes its policy
It is bound to have a fundamental impact on automobile manufacturers in various countries, especially in Europe, America and Japan.
Japanese automakers intend to vigorously develop new energy vehicles in the Chinese market
At the Beijing International Automobile Exhibition held this fall
Nissan Motor unveiled its new electric vehicles abroad for the first time
And said it is scheduled to start sales in China in 2021
Honda Motor also released an electric concept car, intending to mass produce electric cars
China released
"New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" proposed
By 2025
The sales volume of new energy vehicles reaches about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles
By 2035
In addition to engineering or commercial vehicles, pure electric vehicles have become the mainstream of new sales vehicles
Since China is the world’s largest auto market
And the Chinese auto industry so far
There is no fundamental conflict with the three major automobile manufacturing groups in Europe, America and Japan
The publication of this document means
Whoever wants to gain a firm foothold in the Chinese market must act immediately
Otherwise, when China's own enterprises are set up, they will realize "overtaking in corners"
I'm afraid their good days are over
This is forcing Europe, America and Japan to make a choice
Whoever lives or dies is between each thought
Generally speaking
Anti-corporate (industry) monopoly must reach at least three scales
Because two are easy to monopolize and three are relatively difficult to monopolize
Even if the three companies in Europe, America and Japan reached a monopoly
China also has its own companies producing new energy vehicles
There are two routes for new energy vehicles
One is electric energy vehicles
China has reached the world's leading level in terms of energy density of car batteries
One is a fuel car
Japan's technology is leading this route
China now has all the elements for the development of new energy vehicles
Including leading car battery technology, Huawei's car operating system
Leading 5G technology and essential Beidou satellite navigation technology
Chinese companies have a market
What Chinese companies want is time
Japanese companies know that this is his last chance
So the reaction was very positive
Hastily announced that he would come to China to invest in new energy vehicles
The new electric car will be unveiled for the first time at the Beijing International Automobile Exhibition
Among the three major automobile groups in Europe, America and Japan
Japan is the only one without a satellite navigation system
It is also the party with relatively weak market resources
And there is a weakness shared by the three companies: no 5G
Japanese cars now only have new energy vehicle fuel technology which is worth a bit of money
If it don’t rely on the Chinese mainland market and Chinese satellite navigation technology
Japan's auto industry may only be bleak under the blow of Europe and America
This has prompted the Japanese auto industry to have to land in mainland China! And it runs faster than anyone else
Japanese auto industry landed in mainland China
On the surface, he chose
It was actually forced out by China’s new energy vehicle policy
China uses this policy to contain the Japanese auto industry
This will also prompt Abe to actually "three enter the palace"
Finally had to carry out the "last strategic speculation" to the end
November 3
Xinhua News Agency said
The problematic cars have been recalled in China, but Tesla does not admit it overseas
Shifting the blame to Chinese users' habits and pressure from regulatory authorities
This kind of unreasonable arrogance cannot be used to
Previously, Tesla had a safety hazard
Recall some imported Model S and Model X electric vehicles in the Chinese market
But in a letter to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration of the United States
Denying that there are hidden dangers in its vehicle suspension
And said that the damage is not a quality problem, but caused by abuse by some Chinese car owners
Arrogance comes at a price
Xinhua News Agency says Tesla's unreasonable arrogance cannot be used to
On the surface, it’s for Tesla
In fact, it’s also for others, especially Japan, which engaged in the last strategic speculation.
China is fixing Tesla at this time (US economy)
In a sense, it also signaled that Japan "you still have a chance now"
Some time later
China's own new energy car companies have emerged, and American companies in China have grown bigger
I am afraid that the Japanese auto industry has even run out of opportunities
From the positive performance of Nissan Toyota
The Japanese side not only "accepts all orders" to this signal, but also fully understands it.
From October 27th
Tesla will export Chinese-made electric cars to Europe
Instead of exporting from the US to Europe
It means that Tesla cars made in China have obvious cost advantages
China has its own new energy car company
Tesla came to China because of money and low cost
If it is not convinced, it can leave China
But it cannot do without China, and is unwilling to leave China
Whether China is forcing the Japanese auto industry to make a choice
Or is China fixing Tesla at this time
Are all the same as another thing
That is, China has not fundamentally dealt with Taiwan’s economy.
It is to use related industries in Taiwan’s economy to contain and squeeze the Japanese and South Korean economies
China's new energy or environmentally friendly vehicle development plan
Is realistic
It is first a strategic policy
Not just an economic document or an industry policy
This also means that China judges that the whole situation is closer to a full-scale showdown.
(Network translation)
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