東方-時事云評【第20201015-180期】

10月9日，美國國家反間諜和安全中心主任稱，俄羅斯、中國和伊朗似乎正阻礙美國獲得新冠疫苗，這種荒唐的邏輯從另一個角度說明，美國習慣于在疫苗問題上無中生有。于內,于外,都是。

特朗普曾聲稱美國有望在11月份甚至10月份獲得新冠疫苗，而現(xiàn)在美國卻指責中、俄、伊阻礙美國獲得疫苗，不禁讓人懷疑美國（西方）到底有沒有真正研制疫苗，從美國和英國的疫苗先后出事并暫停試驗的情況看，其答案不言而喻，西方疫苗研制的真實情況恐怕只以用非常糟糕這幾個字去形容。

美國指責中、俄、伊的背后，意味著美國想獲得的新冠疫苗與美國（西方）無關，只與“非西方國家”有關，世界上真正有能力研制疫苗且大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)并全力向外提供服務的國家只有中國，沒有之一，俄羅斯雖然生化技術也屬一流，但其生產(chǎn)能力值得懷疑。

另外，俄羅斯國內的疫情嚴重，俄羅斯不可能優(yōu)先向國外大量提供有效疫苗。顯然，西方如果把獲得疫苗的期望放到俄羅斯身上是不切實際的，最后剩下的一種可能性就是從中國獲得疫苗。

而中國經(jīng)過十一長假，大量人員出游（6億多人次），向世界再次證實中國完全控制住疫情不容置疑，雖不排除出現(xiàn)零星疫情的可能，但屬于正?，F(xiàn)象，并不影響大局。再加上中國疫苗研制領先且具備大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)能力，中國當然有能力向全球提供疫苗產(chǎn)品，這也是中國最近宣布加入疫苗全球計劃最為合適的時機。

中國非常善于抓住類似的機會宣傳，一邊是十一大規(guī)模人員流動、拉動經(jīng)濟恢復，一邊借機宣傳中國將向全球提供疫苗產(chǎn)品服務，時機把握上非常到位。

不難看出，美國表面上攻擊中俄伊阻礙他獲得疫苗，實際上其矛頭直指中國。因為伊朗和俄羅斯都不具備向全球提供疫苗的能力，而俄羅斯的疫情已經(jīng)猛烈反彈，這種情況下不得不讓人產(chǎn)生懷疑。如果俄羅斯的疫苗有效，為什么俄羅斯的疫情沒有得到控制？

據(jù)俄羅斯新冠疫情防控指揮部10月9日通報，過去一晝夜全俄新增新冠確診病例12126例，已超過此前最高紀錄。此外，哈薩克斯坦衛(wèi)生部長近日稱，自3月中旬發(fā)生新冠肺炎疫情以來，該國共有1萬2千多名醫(yī)務工作者感染新冠肺炎。

我們注意到，前不久哈薩克斯坦不明原因的肺炎到現(xiàn)在沒有看到任何后續(xù)報道，而哈醫(yī)務人員感染一萬多人，其數(shù)量非常巨大。哈薩克斯坦緊鄰中國且雙邊關系良好，中國抗疫成功的經(jīng)驗擺在那，為什么哈國疫情如此嚴重？為什么不能抄好中國的作業(yè)，也不可能大規(guī)模使用中醫(yī)藥？前段時間哈出現(xiàn)的不明原因肺炎到底是怎么回事？

哈政府把新冠肺炎和不明原因肺炎分開統(tǒng)計，說明這兩種病毒有明顯區(qū)分。哈不明原因的肺炎爆發(fā)如此之久，為何沒有后續(xù)報道？不僅中國、俄羅斯沒有相關報道,世衛(wèi)組織也沒有跟進，哈自己也沒有下文。

新疆前不久爆發(fā)過新冠疫情，而新疆距離哈薩克斯坦不遠，新疆的新冠疫情極有可能夾雜了哈不明原因肺炎，即便如此中國也沒有任何說法，所有的疑點很容易讓人聯(lián)想到一種猜測，哈不明原因肺炎有可能是一種新病毒，而這種新病毒出現(xiàn)在哈薩克斯坦，除了那里有美軍的生化研究所，另一個原因就是哈與中國和俄羅斯都相鄰，地理上向俄羅斯和中國定向輸入疫情非常方便。

中國官方曾證實中國的某種疫苗能夠覆蓋病毒變異，也就是說不管新疆疫情里有沒有夾雜哈不明肺炎病例，對中國而言都不成問題。如果從這個角度看，哈的疫情不能得到控制，除了上述客觀原因外，是否還有別的原因？比如哈國病毒疫苗的研制程序能否正常啟動？

中國最終獲得哈國境內病毒信息不成問題，但“合法性與合理性”或有問題，這或能解釋中國為什么沒有任何相關后續(xù)消息出現(xiàn)。所以我們有理由懷疑或有勢力一直在不同層面、竭力阻止揭露哈不明原因肺炎的真相。

但如果這樣為什么俄羅斯對此沒有任何看法？在東方時事解讀看來，哈不明肺炎爆發(fā)非常猛烈，或從地理或從時間上看，中國新疆和香港可能都受到了波及，或許哈出現(xiàn)不明原因病毒，與美陸軍傳染病研究所出現(xiàn)新冠病毒的情況類似。所以在目前階段中國也只能是點到為止，沒有深入揭露。

如果事實果真如此，就意味著這種病毒的出現(xiàn)是一種生化襲擊，而攻擊的方向無疑是與哈距離很近的中國和俄羅斯。即便如此，以中國在抗擊新冠疫情中表現(xiàn)出的技術實力與經(jīng)濟實力及組織能力，中國控制住哈不明原因病毒的攻擊不成問題。而俄羅斯的情況顯然不容樂觀。

正如之前東方時事解讀反復警示的那樣，如果哈不明原因的病毒夾雜在新冠病毒當中，而俄羅斯聲稱的疫苗只針對新冠病毒有效而對這種不明病毒無效，從而造成俄羅斯疫情如今猛烈反彈，一旦如此，則毫無疑問俄羅斯就遭到了等效的生化襲擊。

此情況下，俄羅斯的最后選擇最終或會偏向西方，一方面白俄羅斯問題、烏克蘭問題和納卡問題受到西方極大的壓力；另一方面疫情問題無法解決，俄羅斯必然需要尋找出路，而且如果疫情果真是等效的生化襲擊，在第五縱隊的里應外合下，再加上普京身邊的人出點問題，出現(xiàn)所謂的“出走潮”。那么，普京政權自然是罪責難逃，為了脫罪、甩鍋中國無疑是最容易想到的辦法，因此盡管目前這些猜測沒有得到事實驗證，但要高度警覺其發(fā)生的可能性。

再次強調，要高度關注哈不明原因肺炎的后續(xù)報道，隨著新冠疫情在中國之外的國家全面反彈，對中國而言也存在現(xiàn)實壓力。十一長假大量人員出游、拉動經(jīng)濟恢復，別的國家只有羨慕嫉妒恨，他們在疫情得不到控制的情況下，最終也很容易在甩鍋中國的問題上達成共識，這種壓力對中國是客觀的;中國要做好應對的準備，但這種局面本質上還是新冠疫情層面的南亞破局。

此外需要指出的是，就美國指責中、俄、伊阻礙美國獲取新冠疫苗一事，如果俄羅斯僅僅做出澄清并否認美國的說法，那么就不算新冠疫情層面的南亞破局。但如果俄羅斯的澄清是走向“集體甩鍋中國”的基礎上，無疑意味著形成了新冠疫情層面的南亞破局。

10月9日，外交部發(fā)言人，就中國加入“新冠肺炎疫苗實施計劃”答記者問時表示，中國同全球疫苗免疫聯(lián)盟簽署協(xié)議，正式加入“新冠肺炎疫苗實施計劃”。這是中國秉持人類衛(wèi)生健康共同體理念，履行自身承諾推動疫苗成為全球公共產(chǎn)品的一個重要舉措。

2020年9月5日，中國國藥集團中國生物開發(fā)的新冠疫苗公布。疫苗目前已進入第三階段人體測試，但不在COVAX計劃內。

中國加入“新冠肺炎疫苗實施計劃”，意味著全人類（包括美國人民）距離拿到疫苗非常近了，這對西方和俄羅斯都是壓力，與之前俄羅斯承諾向世界提供疫苗有本質區(qū)別。

巴西、阿聯(lián)酋和世衛(wèi)組織都公開承認中國疫苗安全有效，但俄羅斯的疫苗至今沒有得到這樣的評價，中國加入該計劃無疑會成為提供疫苗的主角，包括西方最后拿到的疫苗都可能是中國的，西方如果想用需要先申請，而中國承諾優(yōu)先向亞非拉國家提供，這樣一來西方的優(yōu)先級將靠后，無疑對西方是壓力。

另一方面，中國此前沒有加入該計劃，某種程度上是為俄羅斯打疫苗牌創(chuàng)造空間，但俄羅斯如今已出現(xiàn)令人高度警惕的跡象，且俄羅斯的疫苗連其國內的疫情都無法解決，更別說為全人類提供服務了。

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中國此時加入疫苗計劃可謂水到渠成，這樣一來俄羅斯疫苗牌的重要性將會逐漸淡化，對俄羅斯也是一種反向壓力。這正是中國此時提出，加入“新冠肺炎疫苗實施計劃”的兩個主要意圖，再結合國務院近日印發(fā)《關于進一步提高上市公司質量的意見》，全面推動注冊制落地，這些都說明形勢已非常嚴峻。

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冬季即將來臨，歐美的疫情正在猛烈地二次爆發(fā)，深陷疫情泥潭的西方基本無解，英、法等多國單日新增人數(shù)創(chuàng)下新高，以至于不得不考慮重啟封控措施，這種情況下他們如繼續(xù)挑釁中國則可謂“不作不死”。

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未來，中國的疫苗他們用還是不用？如果西方重新嚴格封鎖，對經(jīng)濟無疑雪上加霜，如果封鎖不嚴又起不到效果，這種困難局面西方一定會預料到。因此、仍然是他們集體甩鍋中國的可能性在大大增加。

所以，新冠疫情層面的南亞破局離我們越來越近，最后的關鍵在于俄羅斯的態(tài)度，日本、韓國和印度等必然會加入甩鍋中國的陣營，巴西雖然想用中國的疫苗,但其內部恐怕在最關鍵時刻在西方的壓力下很難保持一致，因此中國此時加入疫苗全球計劃，也可以在關鍵時刻到來之前盡可能遲滯巴西這樣的國家甩鍋中國的速度。

在東方時事解讀看來，南亞破局或從新冠疫情層面開始最后切換到傳統(tǒng)層面，雖然形勢異常嚴峻，但相對于2014年情況要好很多，中國爭取的這幾年時間非常重要，讓中國成功避免了極惡局面，其中最關鍵的就是軍改已基本完成，軍改與群眾路線高度契合，其本身就是群眾路線非常重要的一環(huán)，其實在我們的觀察與評估中群眾路線的核心就是軍改，剩下的才是向金融反腐和文化反腐實質性突破延伸，雖然這兩步目前還沒有走完，但在軍改基本完成的前提下，這未完的兩步雖會造成一些問題、甚至是不小的問題，但總體上并無須過多地擔心。

Dongfang Time Cloud Review【No. 20201015-180】

On October 9, the director of the US National Counterintelligence and Security Center stated that Russia, China, and Iran seemed to be preventing the United States from obtaining the COVID-19 vaccine. This absurd logic showed from another angle that the United States is accustomed to making out of nothing about vaccine. Inside, outside, all.

Trump once claimed that the United States is expected to obtain the COVID-19 vaccine in November or even October, but now the United States accuses China, Russia, and Iran of obstructing the United States’ access to vaccines. One cannot help but wonder whether the United States (the West) has actually developed a vaccine. According to the situation of the British vaccine accidents and suspension of trials, the answer is self-evident. The real situation of western vaccine development may only be described in the words "very bad".

Behind the US accusations of China, Russia, and Iran, it means that the COVID-19 vaccine that the US wants to obtain has nothing to do with the United States (the West), but only related to “non-Western countries”. The only country in the world that has the real ability to develop vaccines and mass-produce them and provide services to the outside world is China. The only country is China, and none of others. Although Russia's biochemical technology is also top-notch, its production capacity is questionable.

In addition, the domestic epidemic in Russia is serious, and Russia cannot give priority to providing effective vaccines abroad. Obviously, it is unrealistic for the West to place the expectation of obtaining vaccines on Russia. The last possibility is to obtain vaccines from China.

After the National Day long holiday in China, a large number of people traveled (more than 600 million person-times), confirming to the world that China has completely controlled the epidemic. Although the possibility of sporadic epidemics cannot be ruled out, it is a normal phenomenon and does not affect the overall situation. Coupled with China's leading vaccine development and large-scale production capacity, China certainly has the ability to provide vaccine products to the world. This is also the most appropriate time for China to announce its participation in the global vaccine program.

China is very good at seizing similar opportunities for publicity. On the one hand, it is the National Day large-scale person movement and economic recovery, and on the other hand, it takes the opportunity to publicize that China will provide vaccine products and services to the world. The timing is very good.

It is not difficult to see that the United States has attacked China, Russia and Iran on the surface to prevent him from obtaining vaccines, but in fact it has targeted China. Because neither Iran nor Russia has the ability to provide vaccines to the world, and the Russian epidemic has rebounded violently, people have to be suspicious in this situation. If the Russian vaccine is effective, why has the Russian epidemic not been controlled?

According to the report of the Russian COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters on October 9, there were 12,126 new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia in the past day and night, exceeding the previous record. In addition, the Minister of Health of Kazakhstan recently stated that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pneumonia in mid-March, more than 12,000 medical workers in the country have been infected with the COVID-19 pneumonia.

We have noticed that the unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan not long ago has not seen any follow-up reports, and the Kazakhstan medical staff has infected more than 10,000 people, the number of which is very large. Kazakhstan is close to China and has good bilateral relations. China's successful experience in fighting the epidemic lies there. Why is the epidemic in Kazakhstan so severe? Why can't we copy China's homework well, nor can we use Chinese traditional medicine on a large scale? What happened to the unexplained pneumonia that appeared in Kazakhstan some time ago?

The Kazakh government separates statistics on COVID-19 pneumonia and unexplained pneumonia, indicating that the two viruses are clearly distinguished. The unexplained pneumonia outbreak has lasted so long, why is there no follow-up report? Not only did China and Russia have no relevant reports, the WHO did not follow up, and Kazakhstan himself did not follow.

The COVID-19 epidemic broke out in Xinjiang not long ago, and Xinjiang is not far from Kazakhstan. The COVID-19 epidemic in Xinjiang is most likely to be mixed with the unexplained pneumonia. Even so, China does not have any statement. All doubts are easily reminiscent of a guess, Kazakhstan unexplained pneumonia may be a new virus, and this new virus appeared in Kazakhstan. In addition to the U.S. Army’s Biochemical Research Institute there, another reason is that Kazakhstan is adjacent to China and Russia, and it is very convenient to import the epidemic situation to Russia and China Geographically.

Chinese officials have confirmed that a certain vaccine in China can cover the virus mutation, which means that no matter whether there are cases of unexplained pneumonia in Xinjiang, it is not a problem for China. If viewed from this angle, Kazakhstan's epidemic cannot be controlled, are there other reasons besides the above objective reasons? For example, can the development process of the Kazakhstan virus vaccine be started normally?

In the end, it is not a problem for China to obtain information about the virus in Kazakhstan, but the "legitimacy and rationality" may be problematic, which may explain why there is no relevant follow-up news in China. Therefore, we have reason to doubt that there may have some forces to prevent the revealing of the truth of unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan at different levels.

But if so, why does Russia have no opinion on this? According to Dongfang Time, the outbreak of unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan is very violent, or in terms of geography or time, China's Xinjiang and Hong Kong may have been affected. The occurrence of unidentified virus in Kazakhstan is similar to that of COVID-29 Virus in US Army Institute of Infectious Diseases. Therefore, at the current stage, China can only click to the end without in-depth disclosure.

If this is the case, it means that the emergence of this virus is a biochemical attack, and the direction of the attack is undoubtedly China and Russia, which are very close to Kazakhstan. Even so, with China's technical and economic strength and organizational capabilities in fighting the COVID-19 epidemic, China will not be a problem to control the attacks of the unexplained virus in Kazakhstan. The situation in Russia is clearly not optimistic.

As the previous Dongfang Time has repeatedly warned, if an unexplained virus is mixed with the COVID-19 virus, and the vaccine claimed by Russia is only effective against the COVID-19 virus and ineffective against this unknown virus, the Russian epidemic has now rebounded violently. There is no doubt that Russia has suffered an equivalent biochemical attack.

Under this circumstance, Russia’s final choice may eventually be biased towards the West. On the one hand, the Belarusian issue, the Ukrainian issue, and the Naka issue are under great pressure from the West; on the other hand, if the epidemic problem cannot be resolved, Russia must find a way out, and if the epidemic is a true equivalent biochemical attack with the cooperation of the fifth column and the problems of the people around Putin, the so-called "exodus" appeared. So, Putin's regime is naturally hard to escape. To get rid of the blame, it is undoubtedly the easiest way to shift the blame to China. Therefore, although these speculations have not been verified by facts, we must be highly alert to the possibility of their occurrence.

Once again, we must pay close attention to follow-up reports of unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan. With the full rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries other than China, there is also real pressure on China. A large number of people traveled during the National Day long holiday to stimulate economic recovery. Other countries only have envy and hatred. When the epidemic is not under control, it is easy for them to reach a consensus on the issue of shifting the blame to China. Such pressure is objective to China and China needs to be prepared to respond, but this situation is essentially a breakthrough in South Asia at the level of the COVID-19 epidemic.

In addition, it should be pointed out that if the United States accuses China, Russia, and Iran of obstructing the United States’ access to the COVID-19 vaccine, if Russia only clarifies and denies the United States’ claims, then it will not be considered a break in South Asia at the level of the COVID-19 epidemic. However, if Russia’s clarification is based on a “collective shifting blame to China”, it will undoubtedly mean that South Asia has broken the situation at the level of the COVID-19 epidemic.

On October 9, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to a reporter's question on China's participation in the "COVID-19 Vaccine Implementation Plan" and stated that China has signed an agreement with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization to formally join the "COVID-19 Vaccine Implementation Plan." This is an important measure for China to uphold the concept of a community of human health and fulfill its commitment to promote vaccines as a global public product.

On September 5, 2020, the COVID-19 vaccine developed by China National Pharmaceutical Group China Biotechnology Co., Ltd. was announced. The vaccine has now entered the third phase of human testing, but it is not in the COVAX plan.

China's participation in the "COVID-19 Pneumonia Vaccine Implementation Plan" means that all mankind (including the American people) is very close to getting the vaccine. This is pressure on the West and Russia, and it is fundamentally different from the previous Russia's promise to provide the world with a vaccine.

Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and the World Health Organization have all publicly acknowledged that China’s vaccines are safe and effective, but Russia’s vaccines have not yet received such evaluations. China’s participation in the program will undoubtedly become the protagonist of vaccine provision, including the last vaccines obtained by the West may be Chinese. If the West wants to use it, it needs to apply first, and China promises to give priority to Asian, African and Latin American countries. This way, the priority of the West will be lower, which will undoubtedly be pressure on the West.

On the other hand, China has not joined the plan before, which is to some extent creating space for Russia to play the vaccine card, but Russia has now shown signs of high alertness, and Russia’s vaccines cannot even solve the domestic epidemic. Not to mention serving all mankind.

It is natural for China to join the vaccine program at this time, so that the importance of the Russian vaccine brand will gradually fade, and it will also be a counter-pressure to Russia. This is exactly the two main intentions of China to join the "COVID-19 Pneumonia Vaccine Implementation Plan" at this time, combined with the "Opinions on Further Improving the Quality of Listed Companies" issued by the State Council recently, to comprehensively promote the implementation of the registration system, all of which indicate that the situation is very serious.

Winter is approaching, and the epidemic in Europe and the United States is violently breaking out again. The West is basically in the quagmire of the epidemic. The number of new cases in a single day in the United Kingdom, France and other countries hit a new high, so that they have to consider restarting the containment measures. If they continue to provoke China, it can be said that they " Do not do not die."

In the future, will they use or not use Chinese vaccines? If the West tightens the blockade again, it will undoubtedly worsen the economy. If the blockade is not strict and will not be effective, the West will definitely anticipate this difficult situation. Therefore, the possibility that they will still collectively shift blame to China is greatly increasing.

Therefore, the breakthrough in South Asia at the level of the COVID-19 epidemic is getting closer and closer to us. The final key lies in the attitude of Russia. Japan, South Korea, and India will inevitably join the camp of shifting blame to China. Although Brazil wants to use Chinese vaccines, it may be hard to maintain internal consistency under the pressure of the West at the most critical moment. Therefore, China's participation in the global vaccine plan at this time can also delay the speed of countries like Brazil shifting blame to China as far as possible before the critical moment arrives.

From the perspective of Dongfang Time, South Asia may break the situation or switch from the COVID-19 epidemic level to the traditional level. Although the situation is extremely severe, the situation is much better than 2014. The time that China has strived for in the past few years is very important, and China has successfully avoided it. The most critical situation is that the military reform has been basically completed. The military reform is highly compatible with the mass line. It is a very important part of the mass line. In fact, the core of the mass line in our observation and evaluation is the military reform. What is left is to extend to the financial and cultural anti-corruption substantive breakthroughs. Although these two steps have not been completed yet, under the premise that the military reform is basically completed, and these unfinished two steps will cause some problems or even big problems, overall there is no need to worry too much.

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